When Washington Commanders (3‑2) roll out onto Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, the atmosphere feels electric – especially after last year’s jaw‑dropping finish.
Facing them are the Chicago Bears (2‑2), who will line up under the fresh‑handed arm of Caleb Williams, quarterback and the 2024 NFL Draft’s first‑overall pick from USC.
Across the field, the Commanders will be steered by Jayden Daniels, the second‑overall selection out of LSU, whose 52‑yard Hail Mary in November 2024 still haunts Bears fans.
This showdown is the centerpiece of Week 6 Monday Night FootballNorthwest Stadium, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC. Betting markets have the Commanders as 5.5‑point favorites, with the over/under set at 49.5 points.
Why This Rematch Matters
The 2024 Week 8 duel ended in a 25‑24 Commanders victory courtesy of that Hail Mary, sparking a 10‑game slide for Chicago that wiped out a three‑game winning streak and ultimately dashed their playoff hopes. Washington, on the other hand, rode that momentum straight to the NFC Championship Game – their first appearance since the 1991 season.
Fast‑forward to 2025: both clubs are emerging from a bye week. The Bears have rebounded to a two‑game winning streak after a convincing 31‑17 win over Detroit on September 28, while the Commanders sit idle at 3‑2, having clung to a perfect 5‑0‑0 record against the spread in their last five home games.
Statistical Snapshot
- Commanders’ defense: allowing 350+ yards per game, with a 7‑2‑0 record against the spread in their last nine contests.
- Bears’ offense: averaging 329.8 total yards, with Williams posting an 8‑2 TD‑INT ratio (59.2% completion rate).
- Run defense: Chicago yields 379.5 yards per game, opening a potential door for rookie RB Jacory Croskey‑Merritt (Commanders) to exploit.
- Betting line: Washington –5.5, odds –110; Over 49.5 at –115, Under at –105.
- Projected final: 32‑18 Commanders, according to Fox Sports analyst Data Skrive (Oct 13, 2025, 4:43 p.m. ET).
Key Players to Watch
Caleb Williams has shown poise beyond his years, racking up 1,842 passing yards and 15 touchdowns in four games. Yet his supporting cast has struggled against stout run defenses, a glaring issue when facing Washington’s front seven.
Jayden Daniels, returning from a two‑game stint on the sidelines due to a knee injury, boasts a flawless turnover record and a recent 231‑yard, 2‑TD outing against the Los Angeles Chargers. His 59.2% completion rate may not look flashy, but it reflects a disciplined, ball‑secure approach that could keep the Bears’ defense honest.
On the ground, the Commanders’ rookie Jacory Croskey‑Merritt burst for 112 rushing yards in his debut against the Packers. If he can thread the needle through Chicago’s porous line, the Bears could find themselves playing catch‑up early.
Coaching Strategies
Head coach Ron Rivera (Commanders) has emphasized a balanced attack in practice, dialing in a mix of zone reads and play‑action passes designed to freeze the Bears’ linebackers. Meanwhile, Bears’ coach Matt Eberflus has leaned on aggressive blitz packages to pressure Daniels, hoping to force a mistake before the game gets out of hand.
The tactical chess match will likely pivot on third‑down efficiency. Washington converted 57% of its third‑down attempts last week, while Chicago managed just 41% – a disparity that could widen quickly under night‑time pressure.
What the Odds Say
Sportsbooks are betting heavily on home‑field advantage. The Commanders have covered the spread in five straight home games, a streak that has helped them stay afloat in a tight NFC East. The Bears, however, have underperformed against the spread on the road, going 2‑3‑0 in away matchups this season.
Experts from CBS Sports point out that while Williams’ TD‑INT ratio is impressive, Chicago’s inability to stop the run could be its undoing. "If the Bears can’t force the Commanders into a passing hell, they’ll be watching the clock tick down with a growing deficit," one analyst noted.
Looking Ahead
The outcome of this primetime clash could shape the second half of the NFC East race. A Commanders win would push them to 4‑2, tightening the race with the Philadelphia Eagles, while a Bears victory would catapult Chicago back into playoff contention and possibly erase the ghost of last year’s collapse.
Regardless of the final score, both teams will be looking to cement their identity: the Commanders as a resilient, home‑dominant squad, and the Bears as a young franchise eager to rewrite its narrative.
Frequently Asked Questions
How might the Bears’ run defense affect the game?
Chicago is allowing 379.5 total yards per game, the highest in the league. That opens a clear lane for rookie RB Jacory Croskey‑Merritt, who could single‑handedly tilt the time of possession in Washington’s favor if he breaks through the interior line.
What does Jayden Daniels’ injury history mean for his performance?
Daniels missed two games earlier this season with a minor knee sprain but returned without any loss in turnover rate. Medical reports suggest he’s fully cleared, so the primary risk is more strategic – whether Washington’s play‑calling can keep the Bears off balance rather than any lingering physical limitation.
Will the betting line shift before kickoff?
Historically, primetime NFL games see line movement as late‑night betting volume spikes. With the Commanders’ strong ATS record at home, the spread could inch deeper into Washington’s favor if public money follows the trend.
How important is the third‑down conversion rate?
The Commanders converted 57% of third‑downs last week, while Chicago managed only 41%. In a tight contest, sustaining drives can eat the clock and force the opponent into longer fields, which often dictates the final outcome.
What’s at stake for the NFC East?
A win puts Washington level with the Eagles at 4‑2, turning the division into a three‑way battle. For Chicago, a victory would keep them within a game of the lead and could erase the psychological scar from last season’s dramatic loss.