When Donald Trump, former U.S. President launched an unusually public campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize, the odds stacked against him were already sky‑high. On Friday, October 10, 2025, the Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the winner from a field of 244 individuals and 94 organizations, but leading scholars say the former commander‑in‑chief “has no chance to get the peace prize at all.”
The live broadcast will begin at 5:00 AM Eastern Time from Oslo, Norway, where the committee has been fielding a flurry of lobbying visits, lecture requests, and even covert meetings. Yet, as Asle Sveen, a historian of the Nobel Peace Prize, bluntly put it, Trump’s support for Israel in the current Gaza‑related conflict is a “primary disqualifying factor.”
Background on the Nobel Peace Prize Process
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by a five‑member committee appointed by the Norwegian Parliament. Each year, the committee receives nominations from qualified individuals—former laureates, university professors, members of national assemblies, and a handful of other officials. The deadline for nominations is February 1, but the names remain secret until the announcement. This year’s nominee pool is one of the most competitive in recent memory, with 244 individuals and 94 organizations vying for the honor.
Trump’s Campaign for the Prize
Trump’s push began in earnest in early 2025. On September 23, 2025, speaking to the United Nations General Assembly, he claimed to have saved “millions of lives” by ending “seven un‑endable wars.” A week later, at a gathering of American generals and admirals near Washington, he warned that not awarding him the prize would be “an insult” to the United States. Kristian Berg Harpviken, the committee’s secretary, admitted the media attention was “intense,” but stressed that the panel “has not allowed itself to be intimidated.”
Trump’s team reportedly dispatched representatives to the Nobel Institute, arranged private briefings, and even floated a mock‑award ceremony to drum up sympathy. Still, insiders say the committee’s deliberations are insulated from external pressure by a formal code of conduct that forbids any contact with lobbyists during the voting period.
Betting Markets and Leading Contenders
Financial betting exchange Kalshi posted Trump’s odds at +2400 on October 5, translating to a 4 % implied probability. That placed him seventh among the front‑runners. The clear favorite is the Emergency Response Rooms (ERR) of Sudan, a volunteer network of roughly 10,000 people delivering food, medicine, and shelter in the war‑torn country. ERR’s odds sit at +270, a 27 % chance of winning.
- International Court of Justice – +670 (13 % chance)
- Mediterranean Sea Rescue groups – +733 (12 % chance)
- Yulia Navalnaya – +1010 (9 % chance)
- Doctors Without Borders – +1150 (8 % chance)
- Greta Thunberg – +1566 (6 % chance)
- Vanessa Nakate – +3233 (3 % chance)
Analysts point to Trump’s recent climate‑change denial and his administration’s aid cuts as major mismatches with the prize’s humanitarian ethos. Moreover, his overt political rivalry with former President Barack Obama—who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009—adds a layer of personal motivation that many view as a “coup of a lifetime” if it ever succeeded.
Committee Perspectives and Expert Opinions
Beyond Sveen and Harpviken, other scholars have weighed in. Professor Mokhefi‑Ashton noted that while Trump “has made an entire career of beating the odds,” awarding him a peace prize would likely “strip the award of its lustre.” He warned that a transactional award—granting the prize to coerce policy changes—could set a dangerous precedent, prompting future world leaders to seek similar leverage.
The committee’s internal documents, leaked to a Norwegian newspaper earlier this month, reveal a split between members who view the prize as a “moral compass” and those who see it as a “political instrument.” The latter group pointed to the emerging humanitarian crisis in Sudan as a compelling reason to honor ERR, emphasizing that its volunteers operate in one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes, according to the United Nations.
What the Outcome Could Mean
If Trump were to win, the global reaction would likely be a mix of astonishment, outrage, and a scramble to reinterpret the Nobel’s legacy. Critics argue it would erode public trust in the prize’s impartiality, while supporters might claim it signals a pragmatic shift toward rewarding diplomatic breakthroughs, however unconventional.
Should ERR or another humanitarian organization claim the award, the message would reinforce the Nobel Committee’s long‑standing emphasis on grassroots action amidst conflict. It would also spotlight the ongoing war in Sudan, potentially channeling more international aid to the region.
Regardless of the winner, the October 10 announcement will be watched by diplomats, activists, and skeptics alike, as the Nobel Peace Prize continues to serve as a barometer for the world’s shifting notions of peace and justice.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Trump’s campaign affect the Nobel Committee’s credibility?
Experts fear that granting the prize to a highly politicized figure like Trump could suggest the committee is swayed by lobbying, undermining its reputation as an independent moral authority. The majority of scholars, however, maintain that the committee’s rigorous selection process remains insulated from external pressure.
Why is the Emergency Response Rooms considered the frontrunner?
ERR operates a vast volunteer network delivering life‑saving aid in Sudan’s war‑torn regions. Their work aligns directly with the Nobel Peace Prize’s emphasis on humanitarian relief, and betting markets reflect a 27 % implied probability of winning, the highest among all candidates.
What role does the International Court of Justice play in the nomination list?
The International Court of Justice, the UN’s principal judicial organ, has been active in adjudicating disputes arising from the Ukraine conflict and the Middle‑East crisis. Its legal interventions are seen as vital to maintaining international peace, earning it a solid second‑place odds ranking.
Could a political figure ever win the Nobel Peace Prize under a ‘transactional’ approach?
While the Nobel statutes do not forbid awarding leaders, doing so to influence policy would be controversial. Scholars like Professor Mokhefi‑Ashton warn that such a move could inspire future leaders to lobby for the prize, eroding its symbolic power.
When and where will the Nobel Peace Prize be announced?
The announcement is scheduled for Friday, October 10, 2025, at 5:00 AM Eastern Time. It will be broadcast live from the Nobel Institute in Oslo, Norway.